Finance

TNXP Move Probability $5.45 -0.31 (-5.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
72.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($5.72) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.91x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±33.5%
$3.62 — $7.28

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-78.5% to -55.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -67.0% -55.5% to -32.5%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) -32.5% to -9.5%: 147 occurrences (28.9%) -9.5% to +13.6%: 167 occurrences (32.9%) 2.0% +13.6% to +36.6%: 92 occurrences (18.1%) +36.6% to +59.6%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +59.6% to +82.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 71.1% +82.6% to +105.7%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +105.7% to +128.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +128.7% to +151.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 140.2% +151.7% to +174.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +174.7% to +197.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +197.8% to +220.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 209.3% +220.8% to +243.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +243.8% to +266.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +266.8% to +289.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 278.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 72.2% 37.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 27.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.14) and kurtosis (24.15).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 88.4% 44.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 65.2% 30.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (207 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 142.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 62.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 120.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-56% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +38.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -29.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +289.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -78.5%