Finance

TNON Move Probability $2.51 +0.00 (+0.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
60.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.64) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
16.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
3.63x
You are 3.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±38.9%
$1.53 — $3.49

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-77.8% to -60.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -69.2% -60.6% to -43.3%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -43.3% to -26.0%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -26.0% to -8.8%: 184 occurrences (36.2%) -17.4% -8.8% to +8.5%: 214 occurrences (42.1%) +8.5% to +25.8%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) +25.8% to +43.0%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) 34.4% +43.0% to +60.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +60.3% to +77.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +77.6% to +94.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 86.2% +94.8% to +112.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +112.1% to +129.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +129.4% to +146.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 138.0% +146.6% to +163.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +163.9% to +181.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +181.1% to +198.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 189.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 60.0% 16.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 6.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (5.29) and kurtosis (63.78).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.0% 45.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 67.4% 12.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (92 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 165.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 173.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 92.3%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -8.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +9.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -27.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +198.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -77.8%