Finance

TNGX Move Probability $26.99 +1.72 (+6.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
78.7%
Stock touched +5.0% ($28.34) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
40.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.96x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±24.1%
$20.48 — $33.50

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-62.3% to -47.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -54.7% -47.0% to -31.6%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -31.6% to -16.2%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -16.2% to -0.8%: 176 occurrences (34.6%) -8.5% -0.8% to +14.5%: 120 occurrences (23.6%) +14.5% to +29.9%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) +29.9% to +45.3%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) 37.6% +45.3% to +60.7%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +60.7% to +76.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +76.0% to +91.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 83.7% +91.4% to +106.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +106.8% to +122.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +122.2% to +137.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 129.9% +137.5% to +152.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +152.9% to +168.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +168.3% to +183.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 176.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 78.7% 40.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 26.5% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.81) and kurtosis (12.62).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.0% 42.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 75.1% 31.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (281 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 102.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 66.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 87.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-35% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.5%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +37.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +183.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -62.3%