TLSS Move Probability $0.06 +0.00 (+0.0%)
Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.
Touch Probability (First Passage)
98.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.06) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
3.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
26.00x
You are 26.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±327.2%
$0.00 — $0.26
Historical 14-Day Return Distribution
Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 53 historical windows (2026-07-17 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.
Historical returns
Target move zone (+5.0%+)
Target threshold bin
Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models
Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.
| Model / Methodology | Touch Probability | Expiration Close Probability | What It Tells You |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) | 98.1% | 3.8% | Model-free reality across 53 historical 14-day windows. |
| Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) | — | 58.8% | Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.54) and kurtosis (13.71). |
| Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) | 98.8% | 49.4% | Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks). |
Underlying Volatility Profile
Volatility Metrics
- 1-Year Annualized HV: 1388.0%
- Recent 20-Day HV: 2529.7%
- Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 1031.2%
- Vol Trend: Expanded (+82% vs baseline)
14-Day Return Quantiles
- Median Return: +0.0%
- Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +0.0%
- Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -88.0%
- Max Historical Gain (14d): +100.0%
- Max Historical Loss (14d): -99.0%