Finance

THRY Move Probability $1.16 -0.04 (-3.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
59.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.21) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
25.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.38x
You are 2.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±20.2%
$0.92 — $1.39

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-52.5% to -47.2%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -49.9% -47.2% to -41.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -41.8% to -36.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -36.4% to -31.0%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -33.7% -31.0% to -25.7%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) -25.7% to -20.3%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) -20.3% to -14.9%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) -17.6% -14.9% to -9.5%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -9.5% to -4.1%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) -4.1% to +1.2%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) -1.5% +1.2% to +6.6%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) +6.6% to +12.0%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) +12.0% to +17.4%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) 14.7% +17.4% to +22.7%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +22.7% to +28.1%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +28.1% to +33.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 30.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 59.8% 25.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 41.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-4.09) and kurtosis (39.68).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 80.9% 40.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 58.3% 24.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (312 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 85.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 65.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 59.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-24% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -26.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +33.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -52.5%