Finance

TENX Move Probability $1.63 -0.01 (-0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
71.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.71) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
42.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.66x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±41.0%
$0.96 — $2.30

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-91.2% to -82.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -86.6% -82.0% to -72.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -72.7% to -63.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -63.5% to -54.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -58.9% -54.2% to -45.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -45.0% to -35.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -35.8% to -26.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -31.1% -26.5% to -17.3%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -17.3% to -8.0%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -8.0% to +1.2%: 113 occurrences (22.2%) -3.4% +1.2% to +10.5%: 132 occurrences (26.0%) +10.5% to +19.7%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) +19.7% to +28.9%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) 24.3% +28.9% to +38.2%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) +38.2% to +47.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +47.4% to +56.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 52.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 71.1% 42.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 98.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-17.19) and kurtosis (356.52).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.5% 45.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.9% 47.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (251 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 173.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 80.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 52.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-54% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +24.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +56.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -91.2%