Finance

TECX Move Probability $21.86 +0.22 (+1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
72.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($22.96) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
43.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.68x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±44.8%
$12.08 — $31.65

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-49.1% to +25.1%: 437 occurrences (86.0%) -12.0% +25.1% to +99.2%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) +99.2% to +173.3%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +173.3% to +247.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 210.3% +247.4% to +321.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +321.5% to +395.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +395.6% to +469.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 432.7% +469.8% to +543.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +543.9% to +618.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +618.0% to +692.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 655.1% +692.1% to +766.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +766.2% to +840.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +840.4% to +914.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 877.4% +914.5% to +988.6%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +988.6% to +1062.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +1062.7% to +1136.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 1099.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 72.8% 43.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (12.51) and kurtosis (216.77).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 91.3% 45.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 70.0% 36.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (50 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 190.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 38.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 72.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-80% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +30.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -18.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +1136.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -49.1%