Finance

TDC Move Probability $33.48 +1.01 (+3.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
56.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($35.15) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
26.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.10x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.7%
$29.22 — $37.73

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-27.0% to -23.0%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -25.0% -23.0% to -19.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -19.0% to -15.1%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -15.1% to -11.1%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) -13.1% -11.1% to -7.2%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -7.2% to -3.2%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) -3.2% to +0.7%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) -1.3% +0.7% to +4.7%: 109 occurrences (21.5%) +4.7% to +8.6%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) +8.6% to +12.6%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) 10.6% +12.6% to +16.5%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +16.5% to +20.5%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +20.5% to +24.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 22.5% +24.4% to +28.4%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +28.4% to +32.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +32.3% to +36.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 34.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 56.1% 26.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 5.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.13) and kurtosis (26.87).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 70.1% 35.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 54.4% 24.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (283 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 54.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 36.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 33.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-33% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +36.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -27.0%