Finance

TCRX Move Probability $0.22 -0.01 (-2.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
68.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.23) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.46x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±22.5%
$0.17 — $0.27

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-61.2% to -54.1%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -57.7% -54.1% to -47.0%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -47.0% to -39.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -39.8% to -32.7%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -36.2% -32.7% to -25.5%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -25.5% to -18.4%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -18.4% to -11.2%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) -14.8% -11.2% to -4.1%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) -4.1% to +3.1%: 82 occurrences (16.1%) +3.1% to +10.2%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) 6.6% +10.2% to +17.4%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) +17.4% to +24.5%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +24.5% to +31.7%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) 28.1% +31.7% to +38.8%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +38.8% to +46.0%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +46.0% to +53.1%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 49.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 68.9% 28.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 40.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-2.09) and kurtosis (18.11).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 82.8% 41.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 67.5% 26.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (271 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 95.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 101.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 70.7%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -5.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +21.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -29.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +53.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -61.2%