Finance

TBPH Move Probability $17.04 -0.01 (-0.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to TBPH Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
56.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($17.89) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.83x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.4%
$15.27 — $18.81

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 488 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-09-23). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-30.5% to -26.2%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -28.4% -26.2% to -22.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -22.0% to -17.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -17.7% to -13.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -15.6% -13.4% to -9.1%: 17 occurrences (3.5%) -9.1% to -4.9%: 33 occurrences (6.8%) -4.9% to -0.6%: 87 occurrences (17.8%) -2.7% -0.6% to +3.7%: 161 occurrences (33.0%) +3.7% to +7.9%: 67 occurrences (13.7%) +7.9% to +12.2%: 39 occurrences (8.0%) 10.1% +12.2% to +16.5%: 27 occurrences (5.5%) +16.5% to +20.8%: 12 occurrences (2.5%) +20.8% to +25.0%: 16 occurrences (3.3%) 22.9% +25.0% to +29.3%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +29.3% to +33.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +33.6% to +37.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 35.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 56.4% 30.7% Model-free reality across 488 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 1.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.19) and kurtosis (38.35).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 63.8% 31.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 44.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 1.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 28.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-96% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +37.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -30.5%