Finance

TBCH Move Probability $16.25 +0.33 (+2.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($17.07) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.99x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.6%
$14.20 — $18.31

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-27.1% to -23.7%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -25.4% -23.7% to -20.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -20.3% to -16.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -16.9% to -13.5%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -15.2% -13.5% to -10.2%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -10.2% to -6.8%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) -6.8% to -3.4%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) -5.1% -3.4% to -0.0%: 70 occurrences (13.8%) -0.0% to +3.4%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +3.4% to +6.7%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) 5.1% +6.7% to +10.1%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +10.1% to +13.5%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) +13.5% to +16.9%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 15.2% +16.9% to +20.3%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +20.3% to +23.7%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +23.7% to +27.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 25.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.5% 33.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 28.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.37) and kurtosis (5.35).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 70.0% 35.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 68.5% 33.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (279 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 53.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 66.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 41.7%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+24% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.7%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +13.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +27.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -27.1%