Finance

TAP Move Probability $39.46 -0.76 (-1.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
39.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($41.43) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
15.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.52x
You are 2.5x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.3%
$36.97 — $41.95

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-14.7% to -12.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -13.8% -12.8% to -10.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -10.9% to -8.9%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -8.9% to -7.0%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) -7.9% -7.0% to -5.0%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -5.0% to -3.1%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) -3.1% to -1.1%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -2.1% -1.1% to +0.8%: 65 occurrences (12.8%) +0.8% to +2.8%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) +2.8% to +4.7%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) 3.7% +4.7% to +6.7%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) +6.7% to +8.6%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +8.6% to +10.5%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 9.6% +10.5% to +12.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +12.5% to +14.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +14.4% to +16.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 15.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 39.2% 15.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 17.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.11) and kurtosis (1.95).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 44.0% 22.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.7% 16.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (367 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 26.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 22.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 23.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-17% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +16.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -14.7%