Finance

STGW Move Probability $9.40 +0.52 (+5.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
29.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.88) at least once during 3 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 3
Expiration Close Probability
17.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 3-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.70x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.6%
$8.88 — $9.93

Historical 3-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 3-day percentage returns over 519 historical windows (2024-09-13 to 2026-10-13). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-20.4% to -17.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -19.1% -17.9% to -15.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -15.3% to -12.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -12.8% to -10.3%: 8 occurrences (1.5%) -11.5% -10.3% to -7.8%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -7.8% to -5.2%: 29 occurrences (5.6%) -5.2% to -2.7%: 80 occurrences (15.4%) -4.0% -2.7% to -0.2%: 98 occurrences (18.9%) -0.2% to +2.3%: 125 occurrences (24.1%) +2.3% to +4.9%: 61 occurrences (11.8%) 3.6% +4.9% to +7.4%: 53 occurrences (10.2%) +7.4% to +9.9%: 22 occurrences (4.2%) +9.9% to +12.4%: 9 occurrences (1.7%) 11.2% +12.4% to +15.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +15.0% to +17.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +17.5% to +20.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 18.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 29.9% 17.5% Model-free reality across 519 historical 3-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.03) and kurtosis (4.14).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 38.1% 19.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 28.8% 18.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (271 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 51.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 37.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 42.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-27% vs baseline)

3-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -5.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (3d): +20.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (3d): -20.4%