Finance

STE Move Probability $221.49 -3.61 (-1.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
24.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($232.56) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
16.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.42x
You are 1.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.7%
$208.85 — $234.13

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-15.2% to -13.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -14.3% -13.4% to -11.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -11.7% to -9.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -9.9% to -8.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -9.0% -8.1% to -6.3%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -6.3% to -4.6%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -4.6% to -2.8%: 57 occurrences (11.2%) -3.7% -2.8% to -1.0%: 78 occurrences (15.4%) -1.0% to +0.8%: 95 occurrences (18.7%) +0.8% to +2.6%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) 1.7% +2.6% to +4.3%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +4.3% to +6.1%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +6.1% to +7.9%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) 7.0% +7.9% to +9.7%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +9.7% to +11.5%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +11.5% to +13.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 12.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 24.0% 16.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 10.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.42) and kurtosis (5.03).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 39.2% 19.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 30.8% 21.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (289 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 24.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 19.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 18.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-21% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -5.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +13.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -15.2%