Finance

SLNG Move Probability $4.55 -0.16 (-3.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to SLNG Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
51.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.78) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
36.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.40x
You are 1.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±17.6%
$3.75 — $5.35

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-40.5% to -34.9%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -37.7% -34.9% to -29.3%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -29.3% to -23.7%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -23.7% to -18.1%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -20.9% -18.1% to -12.4%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -12.4% to -6.8%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) -6.8% to -1.2%: 100 occurrences (19.7%) -4.0% -1.2% to +4.4%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) +4.4% to +10.0%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) +10.0% to +15.6%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) 12.8% +15.6% to +21.2%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +21.2% to +26.8%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) +26.8% to +32.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 29.7% +32.5% to +38.1%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +38.1% to +43.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +43.7% to +49.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 46.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 51.4% 36.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 24.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.78) and kurtosis (9.46).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 78.1% 39.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 56.7% 43.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (217 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 74.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 68.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.5%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +22.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +49.3%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -40.5%