Finance

SKWD Move Probability $61.40 -0.22 (-0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
55.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($64.46) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.80x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.3%
$56.28 — $66.51

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-16.7% to -13.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -15.2% -13.7% to -10.8%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -10.8% to -7.8%: 31 occurrences (6.1%) -7.8% to -4.8%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -6.3% -4.8% to -1.9%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) -1.9% to +1.1%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) +1.1% to +4.0%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) 2.5% +4.0% to +7.0%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +7.0% to +9.9%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) +9.9% to +12.9%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) 11.4% +12.9% to +15.8%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) +15.8% to +18.8%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +18.8% to +21.7%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 20.3% +21.7% to +24.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +24.7% to +27.6%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +27.6% to +30.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 29.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 55.9% 31.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 24.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.13) and kurtosis (1.74).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 55.8% 27.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.7% 16.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (222 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 35.3%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 25.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-27% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +30.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -16.7%