Finance

SHC Move Probability $17.78 -0.15 (-0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to SHC Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
49.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($18.67) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
24.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.99x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.6%
$16.25 — $19.31

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-23.8% to -19.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -21.6% -19.3% to -14.8%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -14.8% to -10.3%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) -10.3% to -5.8%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -8.0% -5.8% to -1.3%: 117 occurrences (23.0%) -1.3% to +3.3%: 133 occurrences (26.2%) +3.3% to +7.8%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) 5.5% +7.8% to +12.3%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +12.3% to +16.8%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +16.8% to +21.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 19.1% +21.3% to +25.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +25.8% to +30.4%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +30.4% to +34.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 32.6% +34.9% to +39.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +39.4% to +43.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +43.9% to +48.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 46.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 49.0% 24.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.92) and kurtosis (18.15).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 57.1% 28.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 41.5% 18.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (248 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 36.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 21.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 28.4%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-40% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +48.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -23.8%