Finance

SBXD Move Probability $10.99 +0.14 (+1.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
3.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($11.54) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
0.4%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
7.00x
You are 7.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±1.4%
$10.84 — $11.14

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 474 historical windows (2024-10-15 to 2026-09-25). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-4.0% to -3.3%: 5 occurrences (1.1%) -3.6% -3.3% to -2.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -2.6% to -1.9%: 7 occurrences (1.5%) -1.9% to -1.2%: 10 occurrences (2.1%) -1.5% -1.2% to -0.4%: 9 occurrences (1.9%) -0.4% to +0.3%: 260 occurrences (54.9%) +0.3% to +1.0%: 130 occurrences (27.4%) 0.6% +1.0% to +1.7%: 15 occurrences (3.2%) +1.7% to +2.4%: 5 occurrences (1.1%) +2.4% to +3.1%: 17 occurrences (3.6%) 2.8% +3.1% to +3.8%: 7 occurrences (1.5%) +3.8% to +4.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +4.5% to +5.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 4.9% +5.2% to +5.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +5.9% to +6.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +6.7% to +7.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 7.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 3.0% 0.4% Model-free reality across 474 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 100.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.66) and kurtosis (59.42).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 0.0% 0.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 5.7% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (35 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 5.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 4.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 3.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-23% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +1.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -0.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +7.4%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -4.0%