Finance

SBUX Move Probability $99.06 -0.30 (-0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to SBUX Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
5.4%
Stock touched +5.0% ($104.01) at least once during 2 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 2
Expiration Close Probability
3.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 2-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.75x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±2.7%
$96.41 — $101.71

Historical 2-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 2-day percentage returns over 520 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-17.4% to -15.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -16.5% -15.6% to -13.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -13.8% to -12.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -12.0% to -10.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -11.1% -10.2% to -8.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -8.5% to -6.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -6.7% to -4.9%: 11 occurrences (2.1%) -5.8% -4.9% to -3.1%: 32 occurrences (6.2%) -3.1% to -1.3%: 91 occurrences (17.5%) -1.3% to +0.5%: 166 occurrences (31.9%) -0.4% +0.5% to +2.3%: 135 occurrences (26.0%) +2.3% to +4.0%: 57 occurrences (11.0%) +4.0% to +5.8%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 4.9% +5.8% to +7.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +7.6% to +9.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +9.4% to +11.2%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 10.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 5.4% 3.1% Model-free reality across 520 historical 2-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.01) and kurtosis (6.2).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 6.8% 3.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 4.6% 2.3% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (392 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 30.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 24.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 25.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-19% vs baseline)

2-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -2.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (2d): +11.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (2d): -17.4%