Finance

RWAY Move Probability $6.29 +0.02 (+0.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
30.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($6.60) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
16.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.85x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±6.7%
$5.87 — $6.71

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-18.3% to -15.3%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -16.8% -15.3% to -12.3%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -12.3% to -9.2%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -9.2% to -6.2%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) -7.7% -6.2% to -3.1%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) -3.1% to -0.1%: 92 occurrences (18.1%) -0.1% to +2.9%: 116 occurrences (22.8%) 1.4% +2.9% to +6.0%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +6.0% to +9.0%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) +9.0% to +12.0%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 10.5% +12.0% to +15.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +15.1% to +18.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +18.1% to +21.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 19.6% +21.1% to +24.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +24.2% to +27.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +27.2% to +30.2%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 28.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 30.5% 16.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 7.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.5) and kurtosis (8.92).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 46.7% 23.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 23.9% 11.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (289 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 28.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 20.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 21.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-28% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +30.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -18.3%