Finance

RNGR Move Probability $14.89 +0.19 (+1.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
55.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($15.63) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.88x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.4%
$13.49 — $16.29

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-21.9% to -18.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -20.3% -18.8% to -15.7%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -15.7% to -12.5%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -12.5% to -9.4%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) -11.0% -9.4% to -6.3%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) -6.3% to -3.2%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -3.2% to -0.0%: 91 occurrences (17.9%) -1.6% -0.0% to +3.1%: 80 occurrences (15.7%) +3.1% to +6.2%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) +6.2% to +9.3%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) 7.8% +9.3% to +12.5%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +12.5% to +15.6%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +15.6% to +18.7%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 17.1% +18.7% to +21.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +21.8% to +24.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) +24.9% to +28.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 26.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 55.5% 29.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 24.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.28) and kurtosis (3.79).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 60.4% 30.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 51.8% 25.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (276 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 39.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 27.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-31% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +28.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -21.9%