Finance

QTRX Move Probability $2.80 +0.08 (+3.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to QTRX Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.94) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
29.9%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.32x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±20.8%
$2.22 — $3.38

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-39.4% to -34.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -36.7% -34.0% to -28.6%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -28.6% to -23.1%: 21 occurrences (4.1%) -23.1% to -17.7%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -20.4% -17.7% to -12.2%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) -12.2% to -6.8%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) -6.8% to -1.3%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) -4.0% -1.3% to +4.1%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +4.1% to +9.6%: 29 occurrences (5.7%) +9.6% to +15.0%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) 12.3% +15.0% to +20.5%: 24 occurrences (4.7%) +20.5% to +25.9%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) +25.9% to +31.4%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 28.6% +31.4% to +36.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +36.8% to +42.2%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +42.2% to +47.7%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) 45.0%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.5% 29.9% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 34.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.34) and kurtosis (15.45).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 81.4% 40.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 68.0% 26.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (316 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 88.1%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 75.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 69.1%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -6.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +22.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +47.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -39.4%