Finance

QNT Move Probability $37.55 +7.77 (+26.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to QNT Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
65.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($39.43) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
20.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
3.26x
You are 3.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±23.9%
$28.58 — $46.52

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 95 historical windows (2026-06-04 to 2026-11-06). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-37.2% to -31.6%: 6 occurrences (6.3%) -34.4% -31.6% to -26.0%: 7 occurrences (7.4%) -26.0% to -20.3%: 10 occurrences (10.5%) -20.3% to -14.7%: 13 occurrences (13.7%) -17.5% -14.7% to -9.1%: 12 occurrences (12.6%) -9.1% to -3.5%: 10 occurrences (10.5%) -3.5% to +2.1%: 14 occurrences (14.7%) -0.7% +2.1% to +7.7%: 6 occurrences (6.3%) +7.7% to +13.3%: 2 occurrences (2.1%) +13.3% to +18.9%: 1 occurrences (1.1%) 16.1% +18.9% to +24.5%: 3 occurrences (3.2%) +24.5% to +30.1%: 2 occurrences (2.1%) +30.1% to +35.7%: 5 occurrences (5.3%) 32.9% +35.7% to +41.3%: 1 occurrences (1.1%) +41.3% to +46.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +46.9% to +52.5%: 3 occurrences (3.2%) 49.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 65.3% 20.0% Model-free reality across 95 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 34.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.08) and kurtosis (2.04).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 83.8% 41.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 56.1% 17.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (41 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 101.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 134.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 83.7%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+33% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -9.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +26.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -28.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +52.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -37.2%