QNCX Move Probability $31.14 +1.85 (+6.3%)
Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.
Touch Probability (First Passage)
75.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($32.69) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.27x
You are 2.3x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±67.0%
$10.27 — $52.00
Historical 14-Day Return Distribution
Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 500 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-09). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.
Historical returns
Target move zone (+5.0%+)
Target threshold bin
Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models
Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.
| Model / Methodology | Touch Probability | Expiration Close Probability | What It Tells You |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) | 75.0% | 33.0% | Model-free reality across 500 historical 14-day windows. |
| Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) | — | 14.0% | Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.59) and kurtosis (121.98). |
| Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) | 94.2% | 47.1% | Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks). |
| Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) | 70.7% | 31.3% | Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (297 matching periods). |
Underlying Volatility Profile
Volatility Metrics
- 1-Year Annualized HV: 284.4%
- Recent 20-Day HV: 84.4%
- Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 155.7%
- Vol Trend: Compressed (-70% vs baseline)
14-Day Return Quantiles
- Median Return: -1.3%
- Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +56.3%
- Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -21.3%
- Max Historical Gain (14d): +2270.7%
- Max Historical Loss (14d): -96.2%