Finance

PTN Move Probability $5.69 -0.04 (-0.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to PTN Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
52.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($5.97) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
32.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.60x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±28.9%
$4.04 — $7.34

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 223 historical windows (2025-11-12 to 2026-10-22). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-47.4% to -36.2%: 5 occurrences (2.2%) -41.8% -36.2% to -25.0%: 34 occurrences (15.2%) -25.0% to -13.9%: 49 occurrences (22.0%) -13.9% to -2.7%: 39 occurrences (17.5%) -8.3% -2.7% to +8.5%: 29 occurrences (13.0%) +8.5% to +19.7%: 27 occurrences (12.1%) +19.7% to +30.9%: 13 occurrences (5.8%) 25.3% +30.9% to +42.0%: 17 occurrences (7.6%) +42.0% to +53.2%: 2 occurrences (0.9%) +53.2% to +64.4%: 2 occurrences (0.9%) 58.8% +64.4% to +75.6%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) +75.6% to +86.7%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) +86.7% to +97.9%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) 92.3% +97.9% to +109.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +109.1% to +120.3%: 2 occurrences (0.9%) +120.3% to +131.5%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) 125.9%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 52.5% 32.7% Model-free reality across 223 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 30.4% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.29) and kurtosis (8.34).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 86.6% 43.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 44.2% 31.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (129 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 122.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 75.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 55.7%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-39% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -6.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +33.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -28.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +131.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -47.4%