Finance

PRVA Move Probability $22.45 -0.48 (-2.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
50.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($23.57) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.62x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.0%
$20.66 — $24.24

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-18.1% to -15.2%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -16.6% -15.2% to -12.2%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -12.2% to -9.2%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) -9.2% to -6.2%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) -7.7% -6.2% to -3.2%: 87 occurrences (17.1%) -3.2% to -0.2%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) -0.2% to +2.7%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) 1.3% +2.7% to +5.7%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) +5.7% to +8.7%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) +8.7% to +11.7%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) 10.2% +11.7% to +14.7%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +14.7% to +17.7%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +17.7% to +20.6%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 19.1% +20.6% to +23.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +23.6% to +26.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +26.6% to +29.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 28.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 50.8% 31.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 22.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.35) and kurtosis (1.95).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 54.0% 27.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 58.1% 38.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (289 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 33.8%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 25.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 29.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-25% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.3%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +29.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -18.1%