Finance

PRAX Move Probability $256.52 -8.08 (-3.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
74.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($269.35) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
44.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.68x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±25.4%
$191.47 — $321.58

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-60.4% to -39.2%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -49.8% -39.2% to -18.0%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) -18.0% to +3.2%: 210 occurrences (41.3%) +3.2% to +24.5%: 190 occurrences (37.4%) 13.9% +24.5% to +45.7%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) +45.7% to +66.9%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +66.9% to +88.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 77.5% +88.1% to +109.3%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +109.3% to +130.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +130.5% to +151.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 141.2% +151.8% to +173.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +173.0% to +194.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +194.2% to +215.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 204.8% +215.4% to +236.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +236.6% to +257.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +257.9% to +279.1%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) 268.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 74.8% 44.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (6.01) and kurtosis (112.66).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 84.7% 42.4% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 70.1% 37.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (241 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 107.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 49.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 58.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-54% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +3.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +27.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -16.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +279.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -60.4%