Finance

PCVX Move Probability $63.25 -3.00 (-4.5%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
58.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($66.41) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
32.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.80x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.3%
$52.91 — $73.59

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-62.4% to -56.2%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -59.3% -56.2% to -49.9%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -49.9% to -43.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -43.7% to -37.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -40.6% -37.4% to -31.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -31.2% to -24.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) -24.9% to -18.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -21.8% -18.7% to -12.5%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -12.5% to -6.2%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) -6.2% to +0.0%: 108 occurrences (21.3%) -3.1% +0.0% to +6.3%: 116 occurrences (22.8%) +6.3% to +12.5%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) +12.5% to +18.8%: 40 occurrences (7.9%) 15.7% +18.8% to +25.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +25.0% to +31.3%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +31.3% to +37.5%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) 34.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 58.9% 32.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 9.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-4.77) and kurtosis (73.46).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.5% 38.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 71.9% 34.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (32 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 69.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 116.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 45.9%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+68% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +14.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +37.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -62.4%