Finance

PAGP Move Probability $27.93 +0.43 (+1.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
43.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($29.33) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
27.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.63x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.3%
$26.44 — $29.43

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-19.9% to -17.3%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -18.6% -17.3% to -14.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -14.8% to -12.2%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -12.2% to -9.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -10.9% -9.7% to -7.1%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -7.1% to -4.6%: 37 occurrences (7.3%) -4.6% to -2.0%: 61 occurrences (12.0%) -3.3% -2.0% to +0.5%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) +0.5% to +3.1%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) +3.1% to +5.6%: 94 occurrences (18.5%) 4.4% +5.6% to +8.2%: 74 occurrences (14.6%) +8.2% to +10.7%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) +10.7% to +13.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) 12.0% +13.3% to +15.8%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +15.8% to +18.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +18.4% to +20.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 19.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 43.9% 27.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.66) and kurtosis (5.99).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 36.1% 18.1% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 51.9% 33.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (133 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 22.7%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 12.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 19.0%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-46% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -5.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +20.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -19.9%