Finance

OWLT Move Probability $4.22 -0.07 (-1.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to OWLT Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
74.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($4.43) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
41.1%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.81x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±18.5%
$3.44 — $5.00

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-58.0% to -50.6%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) -54.3% -50.6% to -43.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -43.2% to -35.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -35.8% to -28.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -32.1% -28.4% to -21.0%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -21.0% to -13.5%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) -13.5% to -6.1%: 77 occurrences (15.2%) -9.8% -6.1% to +1.3%: 98 occurrences (19.3%) +1.3% to +8.7%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +8.7% to +16.1%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) 12.4% +16.1% to +23.5%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +23.5% to +30.9%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +30.9% to +38.3%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 34.6% +38.3% to +45.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +45.7% to +53.1%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +53.1% to +60.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 56.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 74.6% 41.1% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 32.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.86) and kurtosis (19.17).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 79.2% 39.6% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 63.0% 24.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (138 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 78.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 42.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 48.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-46% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +24.7%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -17.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +60.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -58.0%