Finance

OVID Move Probability $2.48 +0.13 (+5.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
72.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.61) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.8%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.91x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±20.7%
$1.97 — $3.00

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-46.6% to -34.6%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -40.6% -34.6% to -22.6%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -22.6% to -10.6%: 107 occurrences (21.1%) -10.6% to +1.4%: 138 occurrences (27.2%) -4.6% +1.4% to +13.4%: 103 occurrences (20.3%) +13.4% to +25.4%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +25.4% to +37.4%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) 31.4% +37.4% to +49.4%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +49.4% to +61.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +61.4% to +73.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 67.4% +73.4% to +85.4%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +85.4% to +97.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +97.5% to +109.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 103.5% +109.5% to +121.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +121.5% to +133.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +133.5% to +145.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 139.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 72.2% 37.8% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 25.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.24) and kurtosis (9.38).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 81.4% 40.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 66.1% 29.8% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (292 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 88.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 61.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 71.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-30% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +32.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -18.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +145.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -46.6%