Finance

OTGA Move Probability $10.26 +0.01 (+0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
0.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($10.77) at least once during 14 trading days.
Expiration Close Probability
0.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.00x
You are 1.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±0.3%
$10.22 — $10.30

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 225 historical windows (2025-11-06 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-0.5% to -0.4%: 5 occurrences (2.2%) -0.5% -0.4% to -0.3%: 8 occurrences (3.6%) -0.3% to -0.2%: 4 occurrences (1.8%) -0.2% to -0.2%: 8 occurrences (3.6%) -0.2% -0.2% to -0.1%: 13 occurrences (5.8%) -0.1% to +0.0%: 69 occurrences (30.7%) +0.0% to +0.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 0.0% +0.1% to +0.2%: 26 occurrences (11.6%) +0.2% to +0.3%: 47 occurrences (20.9%) +0.3% to +0.3%: 8 occurrences (3.6%) 0.3% +0.3% to +0.4%: 1 occurrences (0.4%) +0.4% to +0.5%: 6 occurrences (2.7%) +0.5% to +0.6%: 11 occurrences (4.9%) 0.5% +0.6% to +0.7%: 7 occurrences (3.1%) +0.7% to +0.8%: 6 occurrences (2.7%) +0.8% to +0.8%: 6 occurrences (2.7%) 0.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 0.0% 0.0% Model-free reality across 225 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 100.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.99) and kurtosis (34.96).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 0.0% 0.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 0.0% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (17 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 1.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 0.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 0.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-76% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +0.6%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -0.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +0.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -0.5%