Finance

OPRX Move Probability $9.44 +0.50 (+5.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
76.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.91) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
39.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.93x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±19.3%
$7.62 — $11.26

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-36.4% to -27.3%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -31.8% -27.3% to -18.2%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) -18.2% to -9.1%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) -9.1% to -0.0%: 104 occurrences (20.5%) -4.6% -0.0% to +9.0%: 109 occurrences (21.5%) +9.0% to +18.1%: 75 occurrences (14.8%) +18.1% to +27.2%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) 22.7% +27.2% to +36.3%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) +36.3% to +45.4%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +45.4% to +54.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 49.9% +54.5% to +63.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +63.5% to +72.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +72.6% to +81.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 77.2% +81.7% to +90.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +90.8% to +99.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +99.9% to +108.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 104.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 76.2% 39.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 23.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.32) and kurtosis (11.01).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 80.0% 40.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 77.6% 46.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (223 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 81.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 50.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 62.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-39% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +28.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -19.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +108.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -36.4%