Finance

OPRT Move Probability $9.34 +0.20 (+2.2%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
73.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($9.81) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 3 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
41.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.77x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±16.0%
$7.84 — $10.84

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-32.5% to -22.9%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -27.7% -22.9% to -13.3%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) -13.3% to -3.8%: 129 occurrences (25.4%) -3.8% to +5.8%: 126 occurrences (24.8%) 1.0% +5.8% to +15.3%: 101 occurrences (19.9%) +15.3% to +24.9%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) +24.9% to +34.5%: 35 occurrences (6.9%) 29.7% +34.5% to +44.0%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +44.0% to +53.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +53.6% to +63.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 58.4% +63.1% to +72.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +72.7% to +82.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +82.2% to +91.8%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 87.0% +91.8% to +101.4%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +101.4% to +110.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +110.9% to +120.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 115.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 73.2% 41.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 26.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.96) and kurtosis (5.52).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 76.1% 38.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 74.5% 36.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (141 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 67.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 39.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 51.5%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-43% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +27.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +120.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -32.5%