Finance

OPK Move Probability $1.60 -0.06 (-3.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
61.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.68) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
28.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.15x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±11.2%
$1.42 — $1.78

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-24.7% to -21.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -22.9% -21.0% to -17.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -17.3% to -13.6%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -13.6% to -9.9%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -11.7% -9.9% to -6.2%: 56 occurrences (11.0%) -6.2% to -2.4%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) -2.4% to +1.3%: 81 occurrences (15.9%) -0.6% +1.3% to +5.0%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) +5.0% to +8.7%: 62 occurrences (12.2%) +8.7% to +12.4%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) 10.6% +12.4% to +16.1%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +16.1% to +19.8%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +19.8% to +23.6%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 21.7% +23.6% to +27.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +27.3% to +31.0%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +31.0% to +34.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 32.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 61.8% 28.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 7.2% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.51) and kurtosis (18.69).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 66.4% 33.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 54.8% 9.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (42 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 47.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 81.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 40.7%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+71% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.3%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +11.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -10.5%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +34.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -24.7%