Finance

ONVC Move Probability $1.80 +0.05 (+2.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
55.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.89) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.75x
You are 1.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±27.0%
$1.31 — $2.29

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 486 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-20). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-41.5% to -35.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) -38.7% -35.9% to -30.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -30.3% to -24.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -24.7% to -19.1%: 9 occurrences (1.9%) -21.9% -19.1% to -13.5%: 32 occurrences (6.6%) -13.5% to -7.9%: 66 occurrences (13.6%) -7.9% to -2.3%: 78 occurrences (16.0%) -5.1% -2.3% to +3.3%: 113 occurrences (23.3%) +3.3% to +9.0%: 64 occurrences (13.2%) +9.0% to +14.6%: 65 occurrences (13.4%) 11.8% +14.6% to +20.2%: 16 occurrences (3.3%) +20.2% to +25.8%: 27 occurrences (5.6%) +25.8% to +31.4%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 28.6% +31.4% to +37.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +37.0% to +42.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +42.6% to +48.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 45.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 55.1% 31.5% Model-free reality across 486 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 33.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.21) and kurtosis (13.05).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 85.7% 42.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 61.0% 42.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (105 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 114.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 43.7%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 47.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-62% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.3%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -13.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +48.2%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -41.5%