Finance

ONL Move Probability $2.15 +0.11 (+5.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
54.3%
Stock touched +5.0% ($2.26) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
31.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.73x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±12.5%
$1.88 — $2.42

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-44.6% to -39.9%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -42.2% -39.9% to -35.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -35.2% to -30.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -30.5% to -25.7%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -28.1% -25.7% to -21.0%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -21.0% to -16.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -16.3% to -11.6%: 23 occurrences (4.5%) -14.0% -11.6% to -6.9%: 63 occurrences (12.4%) -6.9% to -2.2%: 101 occurrences (19.9%) -2.2% to +2.5%: 67 occurrences (13.2%) 0.1% +2.5% to +7.2%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) +7.2% to +11.9%: 55 occurrences (10.8%) +11.9% to +16.6%: 33 occurrences (6.5%) 14.2% +16.6% to +21.3%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +21.3% to +26.0%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) +26.0% to +30.7%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 28.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 54.3% 31.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-1.8) and kurtosis (26.13).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 69.6% 34.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 43.8% 20.7% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (338 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 53.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 35.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 40.3%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-32% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +15.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -14.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +30.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -44.6%