Finance

OIA Move Probability $5.74 -0.05 (-0.9%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to OIA Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
5.1%
Stock touched +5.0% ($6.03) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
3.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.44x
You are 1.4x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±3.2%
$5.56 — $5.92

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-11.4% to -10.1%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -10.7% -10.1% to -8.8%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -8.8% to -7.6%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -7.6% to -6.3%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -6.9% -6.3% to -5.0%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) -5.0% to -3.7%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -3.7% to -2.4%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -3.1% -2.4% to -1.2%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) -1.2% to +0.1%: 101 occurrences (19.9%) +0.1% to +1.4%: 110 occurrences (21.7%) 0.8% +1.4% to +2.7%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) +2.7% to +4.0%: 46 occurrences (9.1%) +4.0% to +5.2%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 4.6% +5.2% to +6.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +6.5% to +7.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +7.8% to +9.1%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) 8.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 5.1% 3.5% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 4.7% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.01) and kurtosis (3.36).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 12.5% 6.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 9.1% 0.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (33 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 13.5%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 29.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 9.2%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+119% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +3.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -3.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +9.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -11.4%