Finance

OFIX Move Probability $9.76 -0.10 (-1.0%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
52.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($10.24) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
23.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.23x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.0%
$8.78 — $10.73

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-23.6% to -20.0%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -21.8% -20.0% to -16.3%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -16.3% to -12.7%: 26 occurrences (5.1%) -12.7% to -9.0%: 39 occurrences (7.7%) -10.8% -9.0% to -5.3%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) -5.3% to -1.7%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) -1.7% to +2.0%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) 0.2% +2.0% to +5.7%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) +5.7% to +9.3%: 45 occurrences (8.9%) +9.3% to +13.0%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) 11.2% +13.0% to +16.7%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +16.7% to +20.3%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) +20.3% to +24.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 22.1% +24.0% to +27.6%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +27.6% to +31.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +31.3% to +35.0%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) 33.1%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 52.8% 23.6% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 20.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.44) and kurtosis (7.43).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 62.6% 31.3% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 47.3% 22.0% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (332 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 42.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 38.3%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 32.9%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +10.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -12.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +35.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -23.6%