Finance

NWTG Move Probability $0.91 -0.10 (-10.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
66.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.96) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
30.7%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.17x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±59.4%
$0.37 — $1.45

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-84.8% to +50.2%: 477 occurrences (93.9%) -17.3% +50.2% to +185.3%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) +185.3% to +320.3%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +320.3% to +455.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 387.9% +455.4% to +590.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +590.5% to +725.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +725.5% to +860.6%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 793.0% +860.6% to +995.6%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +995.6% to +1130.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +1130.7% to +1265.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 1198.2% +1265.8% to +1400.8%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +1400.8% to +1535.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1535.9% to +1670.9%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 1603.4% +1670.9% to +1806.0%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1806.0% to +1941.1%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1941.1% to +2076.1%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 2008.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 66.5% 30.7% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 7.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (3.83) and kurtosis (85.14).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 93.5% 46.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 72.5% 32.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (109 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 252.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 163.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 108.9%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-35% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -4.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +28.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -28.7%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +2076.1%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -84.8%