Finance

NWN Move Probability $48.79 -0.19 (-0.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
31.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($51.23) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 8 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
11.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.84x
You are 2.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±4.8%
$46.47 — $51.11

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-10.0% to -8.5%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -9.3% -8.5% to -7.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -7.0% to -5.5%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -5.5% to -4.0%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) -4.8% -4.0% to -2.5%: 47 occurrences (9.3%) -2.5% to -1.0%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) -1.0% to +0.5%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) -0.3% +0.5% to +2.0%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) +2.0% to +3.5%: 76 occurrences (15.0%) +3.5% to +5.0%: 85 occurrences (16.7%) 4.2% +5.0% to +6.5%: 30 occurrences (5.9%) +6.5% to +8.0%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +8.0% to +9.5%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) 8.7% +9.5% to +11.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +11.0% to +12.5%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +12.5% to +14.0%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 13.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 31.9% 11.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 8.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.68) and kurtosis (4.46).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 30.4% 15.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 33.6% 13.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (295 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 20.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 15.2%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 14.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-25% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.1%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +5.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -4.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +14.0%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -10.0%