Finance

NTWK Move Probability $6.90 +0.35 (+5.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to NTWK Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
52.0%
Stock touched +5.0% ($7.25) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 5 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.56x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±13.5%
$5.97 — $7.83

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-37.2% to -31.8%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -34.5% -31.8% to -26.4%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -26.4% to -20.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -20.9% to -15.5%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -18.2% -15.5% to -10.1%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) -10.1% to -4.7%: 71 occurrences (14.0%) -4.7% to +0.7%: 141 occurrences (27.8%) -2.0% +0.7% to +6.2%: 103 occurrences (20.3%) +6.2% to +11.6%: 59 occurrences (11.6%) +11.6% to +17.0%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) 14.3% +17.0% to +22.4%: 25 occurrences (4.9%) +22.4% to +27.8%: 9 occurrences (1.8%) +27.8% to +33.3%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) 30.5% +33.3% to +38.7%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +38.7% to +44.1%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) +44.1% to +49.5%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 46.8%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 52.0% 33.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 17.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.62) and kurtosis (16.23).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 71.8% 35.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 56.2% 34.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (217 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 57.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 60.0%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 23.6%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +0.8%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +18.5%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -8.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +49.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -37.2%