Finance

NOVT Move Probability $139.99 +4.51 (+3.3%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
51.8%
Stock touched +5.0% ($146.99) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 4 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
25.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.07x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±10.9%
$124.69 — $155.29

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-24.8% to -21.4%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -23.1% -21.4% to -18.0%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -18.0% to -14.5%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) -14.5% to -11.1%: 32 occurrences (6.3%) -12.8% -11.1% to -7.7%: 43 occurrences (8.5%) -7.7% to -4.3%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) -4.3% to -0.9%: 89 occurrences (17.5%) -2.6% -0.9% to +2.5%: 88 occurrences (17.3%) +2.5% to +6.0%: 53 occurrences (10.4%) +6.0% to +9.4%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) 7.7% +9.4% to +12.8%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +12.8% to +16.2%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +16.2% to +19.6%: 17 occurrences (3.3%) 17.9% +19.6% to +23.1%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) +23.1% to +26.5%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) +26.5% to +29.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 28.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 51.8% 25.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 21.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.35) and kurtosis (7.55).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 65.5% 32.8% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 54.9% 23.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (335 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 46.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 32.4%
  • Vol Trend: Normal / Consistent

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -0.9%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +12.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -11.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +29.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -24.8%