Finance

NKTX Move Probability $1.75 +0.01 (+0.6%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to NKTX Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
70.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($1.84) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
33.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.12x
You are 2.1x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±17.9%
$1.44 — $2.06

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-39.3% to -32.2%: 6 occurrences (1.2%) -35.8% -32.2% to -25.1%: 16 occurrences (3.1%) -25.1% to -18.0%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) -18.0% to -10.8%: 73 occurrences (14.4%) -14.4% -10.8% to -3.7%: 84 occurrences (16.5%) -3.7% to +3.4%: 97 occurrences (19.1%) +3.4% to +10.6%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) 7.0% +10.6% to +17.7%: 51 occurrences (10.0%) +17.7% to +24.8%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) +24.8% to +32.0%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) 28.4% +32.0% to +39.1%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +39.1% to +46.2%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +46.2% to +53.4%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 49.8% +53.4% to +60.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +60.5% to +67.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +67.6% to +74.8%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) 71.2%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 70.5% 33.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 25.8% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (1.22) and kurtosis (7.27).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 78.5% 39.2% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 76.4% 46.1% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (165 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 75.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 46.9%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 63.1%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-38% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +20.2%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -20.0%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +74.8%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -39.3%