Finance

NINE Move Probability $8.38 +0.00 (+0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
69.5%
Stock touched +5.0% ($8.80) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 2 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
36.2%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.92x
You are 1.9x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±47.8%
$4.37 — $12.40

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-47.6% to +44.5%: 478 occurrences (94.1%) -1.5% +44.5% to +136.5%: 15 occurrences (3.0%) +136.5% to +228.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +228.5% to +320.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 274.5% +320.5% to +412.5%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +412.5% to +504.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +504.6% to +596.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 550.6% +596.6% to +688.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +688.6% to +780.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +780.6% to +872.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 826.6% +872.6% to +964.6%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +964.6% to +1056.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +1056.7% to +1148.7%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 1102.7% +1148.7% to +1240.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +1240.7% to +1332.7%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) +1332.7% to +1424.7%: 11 occurrences (2.2%) 1378.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 69.5% 36.2% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 0.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (14.88) and kurtosis (291.08).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 91.9% 45.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 69.7% 41.6% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (89 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 203.0%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 45.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 78.8%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-77% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +34.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -25.4%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +1424.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -47.6%