Finance

NEWH Move Probability $0.02 -0.00 (-2.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
83.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($0.02) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
37.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.22x
You are 2.2x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±38.8%
$0.01 — $0.03

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 487 historical windows (2024-10-22 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-45.2% to -12.9%: 133 occurrences (27.3%) -29.0% -12.9% to +19.3%: 239 occurrences (49.1%) +19.3% to +51.6%: 63 occurrences (12.9%) +51.6% to +83.8%: 21 occurrences (4.3%) 67.7% +83.8% to +116.0%: 15 occurrences (3.1%) +116.0% to +148.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +148.3% to +180.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 164.4% +180.5% to +212.7%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) +212.7% to +245.0%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) +245.0% to +277.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) 261.1% +277.2% to +309.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +309.5% to +341.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +341.7% to +373.9%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 357.8% +373.9% to +406.2%: 0 occurrences (0.0%) +406.2% to +438.4%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) +438.4% to +470.7%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 454.5%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 83.6% 37.6% Model-free reality across 487 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 25.1% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (2.54) and kurtosis (15.44).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 90.0% 45.0% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 80.6% 37.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (144 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 164.6%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 220.8%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 180.6%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+34% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +53.1%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -26.2%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +470.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -45.2%