Finance

MLP Move Probability $14.14 -0.71 (-4.7%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

← Back to MLP Options chain →
Optional: Options Contract Breakeven & Edge Analysis — test a specific strike and premium
Touch Probability (First Passage)
35.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($14.85) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
22.0%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.62x
You are 1.6x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±8.8%
$12.90 — $15.39

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-18.8% to -16.3%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -17.6% -16.3% to -13.9%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -13.9% to -11.4%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) -11.4% to -9.0%: 34 occurrences (6.7%) -10.2% -9.0% to -6.5%: 49 occurrences (9.6%) -6.5% to -4.1%: 64 occurrences (12.6%) -4.1% to -1.6%: 72 occurrences (14.2%) -2.8% -1.6% to +0.9%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) +0.9% to +3.3%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) +3.3% to +5.8%: 50 occurrences (9.8%) 4.5% +5.8% to +8.2%: 36 occurrences (7.1%) +8.2% to +10.7%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) +10.7% to +13.1%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) 11.9% +13.1% to +15.6%: 14 occurrences (2.8%) +15.6% to +18.0%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) +18.0% to +20.5%: 1 occurrences (0.2%) 19.3%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 35.6% 22.0% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 13.9% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (0.46) and kurtosis (7.85).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 57.8% 28.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 23.9% 13.2% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (197 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 37.2%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 23.1%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 10.2%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-38% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +8.9%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -9.9%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +20.5%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -18.8%