Finance

MAIN Move Probability $53.30 -0.05 (-0.1%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
35.2%
Stock touched +5.0% ($55.96) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 7 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
20.3%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.74x
You are 1.7x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±5.5%
$50.36 — $56.24

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 508 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-21). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-14.7% to -12.9%: 2 occurrences (0.4%) -13.8% -12.9% to -11.2%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) -11.2% to -9.5%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) -9.5% to -7.8%: 13 occurrences (2.6%) -8.7% -7.8% to -6.1%: 20 occurrences (3.9%) -6.1% to -4.4%: 27 occurrences (5.3%) -4.4% to -2.7%: 44 occurrences (8.7%) -3.6% -2.7% to -1.0%: 58 occurrences (11.4%) -1.0% to +0.7%: 54 occurrences (10.6%) +0.7% to +2.4%: 68 occurrences (13.4%) 1.5% +2.4% to +4.1%: 69 occurrences (13.6%) +4.1% to +5.8%: 60 occurrences (11.8%) +5.8% to +7.5%: 41 occurrences (8.1%) 6.6% +7.5% to +9.2%: 22 occurrences (4.3%) +9.2% to +10.9%: 10 occurrences (2.0%) +10.9% to +12.6%: 5 occurrences (1.0%) 11.7%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 35.2% 20.3% Model-free reality across 508 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 11.0% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.48) and kurtosis (4.67).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 37.7% 18.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 38.0% 23.4% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (205 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 23.4%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 14.4%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 18.6%
  • Vol Trend: Compressed (-39% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +1.2%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +6.8%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -6.1%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +12.6%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -14.7%