Finance

LKQ Move Probability $17.43 -5.04 (-22.4%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
43.9%
Stock touched +5.0% ($18.30) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 6 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
15.5%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
2.84x
You are 2.8x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±9.2%
$15.83 — $19.03

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 510 historical windows (2024-09-23 to 2026-10-23). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-24.0% to -21.4%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -22.7% -21.4% to -18.9%: 8 occurrences (1.6%) -18.9% to -16.3%: 4 occurrences (0.8%) -16.3% to -13.8%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) -15.1% -13.8% to -11.2%: 7 occurrences (1.4%) -11.2% to -8.7%: 12 occurrences (2.4%) -8.7% to -6.1%: 52 occurrences (10.2%) -7.4% -6.1% to -3.5%: 86 occurrences (16.9%) -3.5% to -1.0%: 87 occurrences (17.1%) -1.0% to +1.6%: 69 occurrences (13.5%) 0.3% +1.6% to +4.1%: 79 occurrences (15.5%) +4.1% to +6.7%: 43 occurrences (8.4%) +6.7% to +9.2%: 18 occurrences (3.5%) 8.0% +9.2% to +11.8%: 19 occurrences (3.7%) +11.8% to +14.4%: 13 occurrences (2.5%) +14.4% to +16.9%: 3 occurrences (0.6%) 15.6%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 43.9% 15.5% Model-free reality across 510 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 12.3% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-3.65) and kurtosis (32.1).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 59.5% 29.7% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 67.5% 37.5% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (40 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 38.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 93.6%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 26.0%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+140% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: -1.4%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +7.0%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -7.8%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +16.9%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -24.0%