Finance

LITX Move Probability $14.50 -8.82 (-37.8%)

Real historical back-data analysis: evaluates rolling trading-day windows to determine the probability of a stock touching or closing at your target move.

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Touch Probability (First Passage)
90.6%
Stock touched +5.0% ($15.23) at least once during 14 trading days.
Median first touch: Day 1 of 14
Expiration Close Probability
45.6%
Stock closed at or beyond +5.0% at the end of the 14-day window.
The Touch Multiple
1.99x
You are 2.0x more likely to hit your target during the window than holding until expiration.
1σ Expected Move (68.3%)
±47.4%
$7.63 — $21.37

Historical 14-Day Return Distribution

Frequency of rolling 14-day percentage returns over 180 historical windows (2026-01-27 to 2026-11-02). The colored bar indicates the win zone for +5.0%.

-57.5% to -42.8%: 7 occurrences (3.9%) -50.2% -42.8% to -28.2%: 14 occurrences (7.8%) -28.2% to -13.6%: 34 occurrences (18.9%) -13.6% to +1.1%: 32 occurrences (17.8%) -6.3% +1.1% to +15.7%: 32 occurrences (17.8%) +15.7% to +30.3%: 22 occurrences (12.2%) +30.3% to +45.0%: 15 occurrences (8.3%) 37.7% +45.0% to +59.6%: 9 occurrences (5.0%) +59.6% to +74.2%: 4 occurrences (2.2%) +74.2% to +88.9%: 2 occurrences (1.1%) 81.6% +88.9% to +103.5%: 1 occurrences (0.6%) +103.5% to +118.2%: 1 occurrences (0.6%) +118.2% to +132.8%: 1 occurrences (0.6%) 125.5% +132.8% to +147.4%: 3 occurrences (1.7%) +147.4% to +162.1%: 1 occurrences (0.6%) +162.1% to +176.7%: 2 occurrences (1.1%) 169.4%
Historical returns Target move zone (+5.0%+) Target threshold bin

Probability Breakdown: Empirical vs. Theoretical Models

Comparing actual market back-data against Black-Scholes and Fat-Tail adjustments.

Model / Methodology Touch Probability Expiration Close Probability What It Tells You
Empirical Back-Data (Actual History) 90.6% 45.6% Model-free reality across 180 historical 14-day windows.
Fat-Tail Adjusted (Cornish-Fisher) — 48.6% Adjusts normal bell curve for real-world skewness (-0.41) and kurtosis (0.19).
Standard Normal (Black-Scholes / GBM) 91.8% 45.9% Classic theoretical log-normal model with constant volatility (often underestimates tail risks).
Regime-Conditioned (Similar Volatility) 92.0% 48.9% Filters for historical windows that started with volatility similar to current 20-day HV (137 matching periods).

Underlying Volatility Profile

Volatility Metrics

  • 1-Year Annualized HV: 200.9%
  • Recent 20-Day HV: 250.5%
  • Parkinson Intraday Volatility: 154.4%
  • Vol Trend: Expanded (+25% vs baseline)

14-Day Return Quantiles

  • Median Return: +2.0%
  • Top 10% Move (90th percentile): +53.4%
  • Bottom 10% Move (10th percentile): -29.6%
  • Max Historical Gain (14d): +176.7%
  • Max Historical Loss (14d): -57.5%